I do find the tone of some of the posts in this thread to be unkind and aggressive in a way that I don’t see often in the Groups I have been involved in. The “I am right and you are wrong” statements presented, with an almost religious fervour, are not particularly helpful or persuasive. People should allowed to be wrong, experiment and make mistakes, including those people with the most certainty, without fear of bullying.
I used to work in finance and economics. Long before the 2007/8 financial crisis (the aftereffects of which we are all still enjoying) there were a couple of guys called Myron Scholes and Robert Merton who were involved in a company called Long Term Capital Management. They won a Nobel prize for being smart guys. Their level of certainty in their business nearly destroyed the Americal economy in 1997.
Authors like David H Freedman and Nassim Taleb are written some well received books on the matter of certainty. I have seen the latter speak, and read a couple of his books, and would recommend them, although they can be heavy going.
So in conclusion, a further plea for kindness from all, and for encouragement and support over argument and point scoring.